Pantheon Publications

17 February 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: the economy is in better shape than feared

• The economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% GDP gain in December.
• The next OBR forecast will be based on lower gilt yields, giving Ms. Reeves back some headroom.
• We expect payrolls to be revised up, strong wage growth, and CPI inflation to jump to 2.8%.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January 2025

• In one line: The BRC kickstarts the year with strong growth, we expect it to continue.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, December 2024

• In one line: The trade deficit will be held back by high energy prices and President Trump’s tariff threats in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, January 2025

• In one line: Looming end of stamp duty relief causes volatility, longer-term house price outlook still looks solid.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP December 2024

• In one line:Better-than-expected growth should reduce recession worries and suggests the PMI is exaggerating economic weakness.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

20 May 2024 UK Monitor Strong net trade in Q1 does not make GDP growth unsustainable

• We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
• Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
• Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, December, 2024

• In one line: An ugly finish to 2024, and Q1 2025 will be difficult.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 8

Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: PM Datanote: US PPI, January

Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.

Samuel TombsUS

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, December 2024

In one line: A rough end to 2024. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, January 2025

In one line: Probably nearing a trough now. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, January 2025

In one line: Soft in CPI, but the core HICP is sticky, and selling prices are rebounding.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: This surprise pause won’t last long.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: This surprise pause won’t last long.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, December 2024

In one line: Awful.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: US Employment, January

• In one line: Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.

Samuel TombsGlobal

PM Datanote: US CPI, January

Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.

Samuel TombsUS

Global Datanote: US CPI, January

• In one line: Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.

Samuel TombsGlobal

Global Datanote: January CPI & December IP, India

• In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: January CPI & December IP, India

• In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia