- Mexico’s economy has started H2 on a solid footing, as temporary shocks fade and inflation falls…
- …But manufacturing remains under pressure and formal employment growth is slowing.
- Banxico’s upcoming rate decision has to balance inflation control and policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s PMIs are down concurrently year-over-year for the first time in a while, signalling 5% growth.
- Malaysian food inflation is likely to increase, but headline disinflation overall is still on track.
- Singapore’s core inflation rise is no cause for worry; domestic services inflation momentum is slowing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sharp slowdown in unadjusted 20-day Korean export data masks the underlying strength.
- China’s slowing growth and heightened geopolitics remain key risks to Korea’s export recovery.
- We reiterate our call for an October BoK rate cut, or maybe November if financial stability worries persist.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EZ PMIs plunged in September, as the boost from the Summer Olympics ended.
- Our EZ Nowcast for Q3 GDP looks ugly, but we think it is misleadingly pessimistic at this point.
- The ECB will consider an October rate cut if non-energy goods inflation stays subdued in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The composite PMI decline and drop in output price inflation raise the potential for faster rate cuts.
- But the PMI remains consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth…
- ...While still-strong forward-looking sub-balances suggest the headline PMI will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Boost from the Olympics in August disappeared in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Boost from the Olympics in August disappeared in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
14 day reverse repo rate cut isn't additional stimulus, but completion of July's rate cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The moderation in India’s PMIs continues, as they end Q3 on a soft note
Food disinflation pushed down Malaysian inflation in August
Singaporean headline inflation falls in August, despite a pick-up in core
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Colombia’s economy faces headwinds despite the modest recovery; policy shifts muddy the outlook.
- President Petro’s reform agenda meets political resistance, again; economic stability is at risk.
- BanRep is dealing with inflation and growth worries amid government pressure for a dovish policy shift.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The outperformance of Indian GDP growth versus other big EMs in the post- Covid era is undeniable…
- …But putting its growth pace into its proper context remove s a lot of sheen; China’s still a bigger driver.
- “Make in India” remains a macro failure, despite the smattering of success stories at the micro level.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- INSEE survey data show further signs of stabilisation in September but remain soft overall.
- The Summer Olympics boosted Q3 GDP growth in France, but a payback looms in Q4.
- We look for a big fall in the EZ PMIs today as the Olympics boost to French services reaches an end.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect payback for the 1.0% month-to-month August gain in retail sales, boosted by warm weather.
- But look through the volatile sector detail, and retail sales volumes are trending up as real wages rise.
- Consumer confidence, likely depressed by rising inflation expectations, poses a downside risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
