Japan’s manufacturing sector is buffeted by auto safety inspections scandal
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's flash manufacturing PMI hit by auto safety scandal
Services sector boost from income tax break likely to prove short-lived
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We think GDP grew by 2.2% in Q2, but we expect a weaker second half as consumption softens.
- A 2.7% rise in the core PCE deflator should reassure the Fed that the 3.7% spike in Q1 was a blip.
- The further uptick in the S&P Global Composite PMI probably overstates the economy's strength.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- India’s final 2024/25 budget sees a smaller 4.9%-of-GDP deficit than the 5.1% interim target…
- …But this ‘improvement’ is largely because of a better starting point and the RBI’s dividend.
- The real good news is a more realistic tax estimate and a continuation of the focus on capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EZ composite PMI is on the verge of falling below 50; will it matter for Q3 growth? Probably not.
- Manufacturing remains the weak spot, according to the PMIs, while services are still relatively robust.
- The EZ output price PMI in services fell further in July; inflation will follow, eventually.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The July PMI is consistent with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- But surging new orders and future business expectations suggest the PMI will leap in August.
- Slowing output prices will comfort the MPC, but stronger hiring could keep wage growth elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stronger real wage growth supports pick up in June retail sales.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - It’s much too early to make election-driven changes to macro forecasts
- EUROZONE - The ECB is less sure about a September rate cut than markets
- UK - Services inflation too strong for the MPC to cut rates in August
- CHINA+ - PBoC swings into action with early rate cuts to support growth
- EM ASIA - Malaysian 2024 GDP growth likely to beat government’s forecast
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a faster rate than in Q1 but well below the rapid growth seen in 2023.
- A further slowdown lies ahead, as high interest rates bite harder and the personal saving rate normalizes.
- The earlier release of advance trade and inventories data should make GDP forecasts more accurate.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Latin American trade balances have improved amid currency weakness and commodity-price rebounds.
- Brazil, Chile, Peru and Argentina are posting trade surpluses; deficits narrow in Colombia and Mexico.
- Regional economic stabilisation efforts are leading to results in external trade accounts, but risks remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Singapore fell sharply in June, mainly benefiting from lower COE prices...
- ...But the stickiness of core inflation should keep the MAS from loosening policy for the rest of 2024.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth picked up in June, but weak real wage growth is clouding the H2 outlook.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain…
- ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed.
- So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The wide current account deficit reflects elevated fuel import costs and weak investment income.
- Neither factor is likely to improve in the near future, so we expect the large current account deficit to persist.
- That will hold sterling back, as will the weakest international investment position in 37 years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
MALAYSIA'S AND VIETNAM’S ‘HOT’ Q2 IN CONTEXT
- …FOOD PRICE PRESSURES IN INDIA ARE REBUILDING; UGH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
