Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: The first quarterly contraction in more than a year, and the outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will have to plot a middle path.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Output per hour rose an impressive 2.3% in 2024; surveys point to higher IT spending by firms in 2025.
- AI spending, however, poses near-term downside risks to employment and more disinflation pressure.
- Mixed signals on federal spending so far, but DOGE likely will drag slightly on demand and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s industrial output beat consensus in December, yet leading indicators point to a weakening trend.
- January’s COPOM minutes reveal a hawkish stance, despite economic activity softening.
- Peru’s inflation remains well on target, paving the way for a final rate cut in Q2, assuming a stable PEN.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- House prices rose by around 3.5% in 2024, much stronger than we were anticipating…
- …A recovery in demand and still-subdued supply point to a further pick-up, supporting consumption.
- German industry ended 2024 on a better note than we expected, according to advance turnover data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC’s words, forecasts and pay survey point to only one-to-two more rate cuts this year.
- Rate-setters are guiding to “careful and gradual” cuts, and placing more weight on their hawkish scenarios.
- So, we think the market has gone too far in pricing a better-than-even chance of three more cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Private car registrations fall eases in January; the trend should improve in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Poor, but output likely rebounded in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's Caixin services activity slows, but sentiment improves
Japanese wages enjoy year-end bonus boost
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- March 2024 payrolls likely will be revised down by about 670K after benchmarking to UI records...
- ...The birth-death model’s contribution to payroll growth since then probably will be revised down too.
- We see some evidence of tariff “front-running” in December trade data; expect a lot more to come.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Mexican Peso — Complex economic and external waters
- Colombian Peso — Trade and fiscal issues in the spotlight
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s consumption activity was strong over the Lunar New Year holiday period...
- ...But it is likely to slow again afterwards, repeating the pattern established since the reopening.
- January’s Caixin services PMI activity slowed a tad before the holiday, but expectations improved.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ.
- The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat.
- ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Surging uncertainty and payroll taxes are keeping the economy close to stagnation, according to the PMI.
- But the PMI also signals underlying services inflation accelerating back above 5%.
- The MPC will cut Bank Rate today but will give cautious guidance as it balances growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - A growth slowdown looms, as the saving rate rebounds
- EUROZONE - The ECB can’t dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer
- UK - MPC preview: 25bp cut, guiding to three-to-four reductions in 2025
- CHINA+ - DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors
- EM ASIA - New headwinds amid green shoots; PH won’t do much better in 2025
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
- JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint.
- Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.
Samuel TombsUS
- The industrial and commerce sectors are driving Chile’s growth, despite persistent issues in services.
- Confidence indicators are on the mend, as activity navigates complex reforms and external pressures.
- The BCCh will have to take a cautious approach amid sluggish employment growth and high inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
