In one line: No signal of a cut in September; we look for such a signal at the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The labour market is easing making an August rate cut a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices defy high interest rates to rise strongly in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic hotel prices drive June inflation surprise, but this is too strong for the MPC to cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Construction fell back in Q2, after a decent Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Base effects dominate Malaysian trade figures in June
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Japanese headline exports continue to rise, despite auto shipment disruptions
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A strong Q2 for manufacturing, but major headwinds persist.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Tentative signs of recovery in the multi-family sector, but single-family starts look set to fall further.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Services is sticky as ever, and it won’t drop meaningfully anytime soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Equipment investment likely leapt by about 7% in Q2, driven by surging transport and computer spending...
- ...But these components are volatile; high borrowing costs will weigh on capex unrelated to the AI boom.
- The jump in jobless claims was due to auto plant closures and Hurricane Beryl, but the trend is rising too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Latin American recovery faces headwinds as the US presidential election looms large on the horizon.
- Mr. Trump’s potential return to power threatens to disrupt LatAm economies and trade relations.
- Mexico is the most directly exposed, and Brazil the least vulnerable, to a potential Trump presidency
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
- …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
- The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The September meeting is “wide open” according to Ms. Lagarde; markets see it differently.
- Easing inflation, softening wages and falling profit margins should take a September cut over the line…
- …But we are now less certain on a cut than we were before; all eyes on ECB “sources” in coming days.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing downturn is over, but growth in output in the second half of this year will be sluggish.
- High mortgage rates and excess new home inventory suggest single-family housing starts will fall further.
- We look today for a pick-up in initial jobless claims, but the data are prone to unpredictable swings in July.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Senate grapples with tax-break dilemma
- Mexico — President-elect appoints her cabinet
- Chile — Boric navigates pension and energy reforms
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
