Lower rates put a floor under new home sales.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Strong headline numbers, but a grim near-term outlook.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Post-duty cut spike in gold imports hits the deficit hard, overshadowing a more confident recovery in real import demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Down to a four-month low, thanks to a broad-based deceleration.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A solid month for exports, but downside risks linger.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A solid month of August for Indonesian exports, but downside risks linger
Recovery in Singapore's semiconductor exports cushions August headline
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Argentina’s inflation battle is far from over, despite some visible improvements.
- The government’s economic strategy will need to evolve to ensure lasting disinflation.
- The 2025 budget targets ambitious inflation goals amid economic uncertainty and market disparities.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian export growth rose to a 19-month high in August, but this leap faces major downside risks.
- Singapore’s exports are still benefiting from the continued recovery in electronics demand.
- RBI Governor Das sounds less adamant that rate cuts require 4% long-run CPI; all eyes on October.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed…
- ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts.
- A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumer confidence has provided a reliable signal of consumer spending for 50 years.
- Confidence points to consumption strengthening and unemployment falling.
- Consumers’ saving intentions are high but they provide little useful signal about actual saving.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: EZ trade pulled lower by imports in July; hourly labour cost growth remained elevated in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BCRP cut rates to 5.25%, maintaining a cautious approach amid inflation stabilisation and global risks.
- Real interest rates remain restrictive, despite easing, as inflation expectations align with the target.
- The narrowing rate differential with the Fed poses currency risk, but pressures are likely temporary.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations.
- We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation.
- EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
