- Brazil — Lula’s cabinet meeting to address issues
- Argentina — Senate rejects mega-decree
- Colombia — Petro wants a new constitution
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate unchanged at 6.00% yesterday, as universally expected.
- Its ongoing insistence on the need to safeguard the IDR is unwarranted; the carry trade has long turned.
- The Board’s thinking on GDP is becoming more muddled; expect to see the first 25bp cut in June.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- It’s a close call, but we think the SNB will hold fire at today’s meeting and first cut in June instead.
- Risks are tilted towards a rate cut today; markets are pricing in 40% probability of a move.
- mItalian industrial production started the year on a weak footing, but EZ construction is holding up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in February, as base effects unwound.
- Every month that passes without inflation surprising the MPC to the upside brings us closer to a rate cut.
- The MPC’s measure of underlying services inflation is proving sticky, however, keeping it cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Investor sentiment is still rising; a dovish plunge in EZ labour cost growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The FOMC likely will stick to its December forecast of 75bp easing this year.
- FOMC members’ inflation forecasts probably will be little changed, despite recent data disappointment.
- Homebuilders are gaining market share, keeping single-family construction on an upward track.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The wall between the Fed and the private sector is gone; rates now hurt
- EUROZONE - How resilient is the consensus position on the ECB?
- U.K. - No trigger for change by the MPC; rate cuts still a few months away
- CHINA+ - China’s credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come
- EM ASIA - Raising our 2024 CPI forecast for India, and delaying the first RBI cut
- LATAM - Chile’s recovery to continue, along with robust external accounts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s economy started the year strongly, despite the prevailing high interest rates.
- Private consumption, especially services, is strengthening, offsetting the industrial sector’s sluggishness.
- We expect the COPOM to cut the Selic rate by another 50bp today and retain its dovish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
- At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
- Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Hourly labour cost growth took a leg down in Q4, in line with other wage growth measures.
- Leading indicators suggest pay growth is easing again in Q1; we look for it to fall throughout 2024.
- The ECB can’t afford to wait for the all clear from wage negotiations to start easing policy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BoE’s Q1 Inflation Attitudes survey is encouraging; long-run expectations are below average.
- A methodology change in 2020 distorted the data though, potentially biasing expectations downwards.
- YouGov’s survey, meanwhile, shows long-term expectations 0.4pp above average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Lower rates still supporting for homebuilders
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Falling imports are still lifting EZ net trade in goods.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Malaysian export growth slumps in February on seasonal effects
Singapore's February exports hide continued recovery in electronics
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China activity - industrial sector powers ahead, despite persistent property drag and retail sales losing steam
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Homebase points to solid March job growth, but likely slower than in February…
- Either way, the outlook for the second quarter is materially weaker; hirings down, firings up.
- Housing construction is set to rise as homebuilders gain market share; is the multi-family slump over?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
