In one line: Inflation will drop back sharply this month.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Producer deflation set for only modest improvement in H2
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's consumer inflation buoyed by seasonal food inflation, rather than demand
Producer deflation extends decline amid oversupply
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Underlying sales momentum in Indonesia was fading heading into Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A modest rate cut signals a shift towards further easing, with caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest rate cut signals a shift towards further easing, with caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- House prices have almost recovered their losses since October 2022.
- House-price inflation is now trending up at nearly 3% month-to-month annualised.
- We think that house prices will rise 4% year-over-year by Q4 2024 as mortgage interest rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The link between the ECB’s policy rate and the Taylor Rule, which broke after the GFC, is reasserting itself.
- A Taylor Rule with inflation expectations suggests the ECB is behind the curve on easing.
- The model also indicates that the policy rate won’t fall as much as the consensus expects.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- China’s headline consumer inflation rose in July, but this was due to weather-related food inflation.
- Domestic demand still looks sluggish, based on core consumer inflation.
- A jump in auto trade-in subsidy applications, despite overall falling sales, offers a ray of hope for H2.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The fledgling recovery in Indonesian sales growth masked a persistent loss of momentum in Q2.
- Slowing real wage growth is likely to put pressure on Malaysian retail sales until the end of the year.
- Taiwan’s electronics exports continue to recover, despite the sharp drop in export growth in July.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the July core CPI, with the risks tilted towards a lower print.
- Prices for hotels and air travel likely continued to fall; June’s small rise in rents probably was repeated.
- Core goods prices likely edged down again, driven by further falls in both new and used vehicle prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: China's July exports disappoint market expectations
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves rise on positive currency and asset valuation effects
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's July export growth falls short of expectations amid slowing momentum
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s export rebound disappoints markets, likely due to deeper-than-expected fall in car shipments to the US
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s manufacturing activity continues to grow in July, but at a slower pace
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Caixin PMI shows shrinking manufacturing activity for the first time in 9 months on extreme weather
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Base effects were behind the Philippines’ consensus-matching Q2 GDP print, nothing more.
- Consumption is now in a shallow recession, while the post-Covid catch-up in capex is still struggling.
- We have raised our forecasts, but still see GDP growth slowing to 5.4% this year and 5.2% in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Adverse weather shrinks China’s manufacturing activity; Korea’s WDA export growth slowdown likely temporary
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
