Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- The MPC is forecasting private pay growth, excluding bonuses, to slow to 3.25% in Q4 2025.
- But the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is high and rising CPI inflation in 2025 could boost pay…
- ...so we expect private ex-bonus AWE growth to slow to 4.0% in Q4 2025, with risks skewed up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Homebase and other data point to private job growth of about 200K between September and November...
- ...Implying a rebound after October's hurricane hit; we expect 225K private/250K headline in November.
- October housing starts likely were hurricane-hit; homebuilders' optimism about 2025 looks ill-judged.
Samuel TombsUS
- The MPC is rightly encouraged by inflation expectations falling well below their 2022 peak.
- The BoE’s expectations survey is biased down, however, and YouGov expectations recently surged.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now; the MPC needs to be cautious as inflation rises in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Goods surplus rebounded in September; net trade was still a drag on growth in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Broad-based investment comeback drives Thailand’s market-beating Q3 GDP print
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Flat ex-Boeing and ex-storms; the trend will remain weak next year.
Samuel TombsUS
Constrained by hurricanes and falling prices; real consumption still likely to grow briskly in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line:The underlying GDP trend is stronger than the headline fall, which was dragged down by a huge erratic fall in IT.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit widens as erratics and metals give up their surpluses.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Subdued, but both the headline and core will rise in November.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Trade-in subsidies lift retail sales of autos and consumer goods
Residential sales stabilise
Manufacturing output making steady progress
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: An overdue bounce in demand from India moves the export recovery forward.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
An overdue bounce in demand from India moves Indonesia’s export recovery forward
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A modest cut while keeping the door open for further reductions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Markets now see a 60% chance of a 25bp easing in December, down from 80% before the election...
- ...But October state-level payroll data, due Tuesday, likely will reignite concerns about labor demand.
- Early evidence points to a muted rebound in payrolls and a below-trend increase in the CPI in November.
Samuel TombsUS
- The collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in October was a let-down, but it is stable, seasonality aside…
- …This is thanks to a broad-based export recovery; India is a weak spot, but it rebounded last month.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned in October, but due mainly to oil imports, not a bump in real demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s October activity data show household spending ticking up, on goods and property.
- Ignore the dip in headline industrial output; manufacturing production is still robust.
- The full-year growth target is in reach, thanks to rising service sector activity; but 2025 is another matter.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Swiss GDP slowed in Q3, in line with expectations; the report is unlikely to worry the SNB.
- Intensifying deflation pressures, however, are an issue for the Bank; more cuts are coming.
- We doubt the SNB will lower rates below zero; it has other tools, but their effectiveness is patchy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Erratic falls in IT and industrial production output led GDP to fall by 0.1% month-to-month in September.
- Solid consumption and investment in Q3 suggest stronger fundamentals than headline GDP implies.
- GDP growth should rebound to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
