- In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Net exports did the heavy lifting, but the trend in consumption looks decent.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Fret not, the recovery in electronics exports is still in place.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Sign of life in manufacturing; is real net trade weakening?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A cut in August now certainly looks off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
An RBI cut in August now certainly looks off the table
The policy-induced upswing in Thai inflation shouldn’t bother the MPC
Don’t put too much stock into the April leap in Philippine sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's robust May export growth largely propelled by shipments to ASEAN
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Surveys are playing ball, the hard data will follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction growth accelerates further, supporting the recovery from last year's recession.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
- The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
- The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Formal dissent in the RBI grew this month, but we’ll now likely have to wait until October for the first cut.
- The base-effect and policy-driven upswing in Thai CPI should be ignored by the MPC this week.
- Taiwanese export growth disappointed in May, but not enough to derail the overall recovery.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A mini-boom in EZ consumption is coming, judging by the trend in real disposable income growth.
- The inventory cycle reached a trough in Q1; gross capital formation will rebound from here.
- Net exports soared at the start of 2024 but will likely be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The next government will inherit no fiscal headroom and implausible public-spending forecasts.
- The Labour Party has ruled out increases to three-quarters of the tax base, limiting options.
- We expect the next government to raise duties, tier BoE reserves, and increase public spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: A mixed performance on a sequential basis, but downside risk
prevailing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
