The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A mixed performance, with activity struggling, but the job market remains resilient for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: GDP growth rebounds as consumers find their mojo.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Rising jobless claims likely will lift unemployment further in the near term.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Inflated—yet again—by ‘other’ retail sales; ignore.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: EZ headline and core inflation still on track for marginal declines in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tokyo consumer inflation nudged up by the removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: On hold, but rate cuts will resume soon, assuming the MXN stabilises.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Real consumption set for another 1.5% increase in Q2; a rising saving rate will slow growth further soon.
- The 0.08% core PCE print was driven by noisy components, but underlying services inflation eased too.
- We look for another sub-50 ISM manufacturing index in June; tight monetary policy is preventing a revival.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Banxico held rates at 11% amid the MXN sell-off and rising inflation but the split vote signals a dovish shift.
- Policymakers hinted at future easing, as the economy weakens and inflation falls.
- The resilient labour market could face headwinds if economic weakness persists.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The year-over-year slump in Thai consumption growth has bled into Q2, amid poor wage growth.
- The Q4 handout is unlikely to offer real relief, with more households struggling just to pay off debt.
- Philippines’ household savings rose in 2023 for the first time since 2019; the battle is far from over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the EZ likely fell in June, by 0.1pp to 2.5%; all set for a dovish message from Sintra this week.
- Forecast upgrades in Spain and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2.
- German unemployment hit a new post-Covid high in June and likely will rise a bit further in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Q1 GDP growth was raised to 0.7% quarter-to quarter, and the expansion was broad-based.
- We expect GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, and 0.3% in Q3 and Q4...
- ...As strong real income growth and stabilising saving boost consumer spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
