Pantheon Publications

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, October

The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, October

China’s existing stimulus produces initial results, as state sector heeds strong policy signals 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 October 2024: China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI

China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI
BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open

Duncan WrigleyChina+

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2024

In one line: Subdued. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Back in action!

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK

October 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

MIXED RECOVERY FOR LATAM ECONOMIES

• …AMID TEMPORARY INFLATION PRESSURES AND EXTERNAL THREATS

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, September

Probably not the start of a strong recovery.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US GDP, Q3 Advance Estimate

Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, October

No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

1 November 2024 US Monitor Claims tentatively point to a modest hit to payrolls from hurricanes

• The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
• September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small. 
• Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.

Samuel TombsUS

1 November 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico's economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election

• Mexico saw strong growth in Q3, driven by agriculture and services, yet challenges lie ahead.
• Political uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election poses a risk to Mexico’s economy.
• Key sectors are showing resilience, but external factors could hit future growth and capex decisions.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 November 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ keeps options open, amid political risks at home and abroad

• The BoJ left the policy rate on hold yesterday, at 0.25%, as expected given the recent election.
• Governor Ueda was deliberately vague about signalling the timing of the next rate hike.
• China’s October official PMI shows fiscal stimulus gaining traction, led by large enterprises.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A 50bp ECB rate cut in December drifts further into oblivion

• A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December. 
• Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too. 
• The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 November 2024 UK Monitor MPC preview: 25bp cut, and a cautious approach in 2025

• We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
• Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
• The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November 2024

In one line: Continuing to rise, as expected. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November

In one line: Continuing to rise, as expected. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone