- We now see EZ headline inflation unchanged at 2.4% in January, with a 0.1pp dip in the core, to 2.6%.
- Selling price expectations are rising in Germany and France, but core inflation will dip further in Q1.
- Is the consumption recovery in the Eurozone finally kicking in? We think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
- We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
- We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
EXTERNAL RISKS ARE FORCING A CAUTIOUS APPROACH…
- …THE PETRO-TRUMP SAGA HIGHLIGHTS THE GROWING THREAT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Easing consumer saving should support demand, but tax hikes hit business investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tariff front-running prompts a surge in consumption; capex hit by Boeing strike.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: No signal on the level of the neutral rate.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: No signal on the level of the neutral rate.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: GDP growth slowed at end-2024 despite continued strength in the labour market. ESI points to better times ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A drop, as expected, but the details point to robust domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Stable Q4 headline hides renewed deterioration in Philippine private consumption
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Another bold rate hike and a continued hawkish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Another bold rate hike and a continued hawkish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
