Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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5 June 2024 UK Monitor CPI inflation should fall to 2.0% in May as goods inflation slows

We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea’s export recovery continues, led by strong ICT demand and lumpy ship exports

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing recovery fizzling out before it has even begun.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, April, 2024

In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, April, 2024

In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Mexican Presidential Elections, Early Results, 2024

In one line: A landslide victory for Ms Sheinbaum.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, May 2024

In one line: Manufacturing growth leaps and feeds through to modest price inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 June 2024 US Monitor April quits rate likely still pointing to a further slowdown in wage growth

The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over.
The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

4 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital

Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's manufacturing output exceeding demand

China’s May manufacturing PMIs sent mixed signals, reflecting the uneven recovery.
Production continues to power ahead of demand, which 60% of manufacturers view as “insufficient”.
Stimulus funds have yet to boost construction, but steelmakers are optimistic about the year ahead.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week

The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 June 2024 UK Monitor Labour market preview: Another strong wage increase

We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK