- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia and the Bank of Thailand stood pat on rates yesterday, in line with market expectations.
- BI’s anxiety over the IDR is probably a red herring, and fiscal policy is in no position to provide support.
- Pay more heed to the BoT’s increasingly worried tone, not its still-rosy GDP forecasts for 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIA’S SLUMP HAS BEEN LONG IN THE MAKING
- …A SOFT END TO THE YEAR FOR ASEAN MANUFACTURING
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for December— especially services—were punchy, but the slowdown isn’t over.
- We’re still waiting for other metrics to confirm the supposed strength in hiring indicated by the PMIs.
- The sudden leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus in November is hardly wor th celebrating; imports fell.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Another leap in gold imports drags the deficit to a fresh low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A solid end to 2024 for India’s PMIs, but let’s wait for the final numbers
WPI food inflation in India has finally turned a corner
A not-so-welcome leap in Indonesia's trade surplus for November
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian inflation is back in the RBI’s range thanks to cooler food CPI; expect more of the latter in 2025…
- …But the consensus for next year is too benign, especially with core CPI set to normalise constantly.
- The further rise in IP growth in October is only a small reprieve; underlying momentum is still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports beat expectations in November, but the underlying story is more complex.
- Demand from the US continues to slip, but monthly trends appear to be stabilising at the very least.
- Inflation in November was hot, but most of this was likely due to a weather-related bump in food price
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Q3 bounce in Indonesian retail sales growth is over, with consumer confidence still fading…
- …Weak sentiment is a bigger long-run worry than the coming VAT hike, especially with inflation so low.
- The ballooning of the Philippines’ trade deficit reflects in large part renewed misery for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An unexpectedly weak start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales
The bad—and good—aspects of the Philippines’ widening trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI takes a halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP
Philippine sales fall to their lowest level in over a year
High base from last year’s healthcare price rises pulls Vietnamese inflation down in November
Vietnamese sales growth remains sluggish, in reality
Ignore the headline trade misses, the real story is that Vietnamese export momentum is waning, rapidly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ consensus-matching CPI print for November sets the stage nicely for a third rate cut.
- Food disinflation led to the downside CPI surprise in Thailand last month, but expect no December cut.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP grow th fell to 4.2%, from 4.9% in Q2; blame consumption, stocks and net exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A market-matching CPI reading to set up another BSP cut
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI held the repo rate on Friday in a closer four-to-two vote, but surprised with a 50bp CRR cut…
- … A lot can change before the February repo cut we expect ; a new, dovish governor and lower food CPI.
- Vietnam’s November trade headlines missed badly, but the real story is underlying weakness in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Continued food disinflation in Thailand mutes the headline’s November uptick
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN ticked up to 50.8 in November, but its downtrend remains intact.
- More softness is in store heading into 2025; activity is uneven, and forward-looking gauges are falling.
- Indonesian inflation fell further in November to a 40-month low, opening the door more to rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
